{
  "title": "央行购金对黄金价格的边际支撑：2022 年以来的量化评估",
  "title_en": "Central-bank gold buying and marginal price support since 2022",
  "generated_at": "2026-07-24",
  "as_of": "2026-03-31",
  "page": "/business-analysis/central-bank-gold-buying-price-support-analysis/",
  "scope": {
    "annual": "2022–2025",
    "latest_complete_quarter": "2026 Q1",
    "question": "How much did unusually high central-bank gold buying support the gold price level, and how did the marginal impulse change by year?"
  },
  "headline_findings": {
    "net_purchases_2022_2025_tonnes": 4088.4,
    "average_annual_purchases_2022_2025_tonnes": 1022.1,
    "central_scenario_level_support_percent": {
      "2022": 11.6,
      "2023": 11.0,
      "2024": 11.8,
      "2025": 7.3
    },
    "central_scenario_marginal_impulse_percentage_points": {
      "2022_vs_2021": 12.4,
      "2023_vs_2022": -0.6,
      "2024_vs_2023": 0.8,
      "2025_vs_2024": -4.6
    }
  },
  "method": {
    "level_support": "max(0, annual net purchases - scenario baseline) / tonnes per 1% price effect",
    "marginal_impulse": "(current annual net purchases - prior annual net purchases) / 50 tonnes per 1 percentage point",
    "scenarios": [
      {
        "id": "conservative",
        "zh": "保守",
        "en": "Conservative",
        "baseline_tonnes": 600,
        "tonnes_per_one_percent": 60
      },
      {
        "id": "central",
        "zh": "中枢",
        "en": "Central",
        "baseline_tonnes": 500,
        "tonnes_per_one_percent": 50
      },
      {
        "id": "high_sensitivity",
        "zh": "高敏感度",
        "en": "High sensitivity",
        "baseline_tonnes": 500,
        "tonnes_per_one_percent": 30
      }
    ],
    "interpretation": "Partial-equilibrium sensitivity range, not an identified causal price target or a hard floor."
  },
  "outputs": [
    "assets/central-bank-gold-quarterly.json",
    "assets/central-bank-gold-annual.csv",
    "assets/price-support-scenarios.csv",
    "assets/central-bank-gold-charts.js",
    "build_central_bank_gold_buying_price_support_analysis.py"
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "id": 1,
      "label": "World Gold Council · Gold Mid-Year Outlook 2026",
      "url": "https://www.gold.org/goldhub/research/gold-mid-year-outlook-2026",
      "zh": "给出局部敏感度：相对约 600 吨长期均值，每增加 20–30 吨储备需求，模型对应金价约上升 1%。",
      "en": "Provides the local sensitivity: relative to the roughly 600t long-run average, each additional 20–30t of reserve demand maps to about a 1% gold-price increase in the model."
    },
    {
      "id": 2,
      "label": "World Gold Council · Gold Demand Trends Full Year 2025",
      "url": "https://www.gold.org/goldhub/research/gold-demand-trends/gold-demand-trends-full-year-2025",
      "zh": "2022–2025 年年度需求、供应、LBMA PM 均价及 2025 年全年口径。",
      "en": "Annual demand, supply and LBMA PM average-price data for 2022–2025, including the latest full-year 2025 vintage."
    },
    {
      "id": 3,
      "label": "World Gold Council · Gold Demand Trends Q1 2026",
      "url": "https://www.gold.org/goldhub/research/gold-demand-trends/gold-demand-trends-q1-2026",
      "zh": "2026 年一季度 243.7 吨及回溯季度表；同时提示未申报购金和后续修订风险。",
      "en": "Q1 2026 demand of 243.7t and the historical quarterly table, with warnings on unreported activity and later revisions."
    },
    {
      "id": 4,
      "label": "World Gold Council · Gold Market Commentary, December 2023",
      "url": "https://www.gold.org/goldhub/research/gold-market-commentary-december-2023",
      "zh": "WGC/GRAM 的事后锚点：央行需求对 2023 年金价表现贡献约 10–15 个百分点。",
      "en": "WGC/GRAM ex-post anchor: central-bank demand contributed roughly 10–15 percentage points to gold's 2023 performance."
    },
    {
      "id": 5,
      "label": "World Gold Council · Gold Outlook 2025",
      "url": "https://www.gold.org/goldhub/research/gold-outlook-2025",
      "zh": "WGC/Qaurum 的事后锚点：央行需求对 2024 年金价表现贡献约 7–10 个百分点。",
      "en": "WGC/Qaurum ex-post anchor: central-bank demand contributed roughly 7–10 percentage points to gold's 2024 performance."
    },
    {
      "id": 6,
      "label": "World Gold Council · Gold Market Commentary, December 2022",
      "url": "https://www.gold.org/goldhub/research/gold-market-commentary-december-2022",
      "zh": "说明创纪录央行需求和零售投资如何抵消实际利率与美元走强的逆风；未给出独立百分点归因。",
      "en": "Explains how record central-bank and retail demand offset higher real yields and a stronger dollar, without a standalone percentage-point attribution."
    },
    {
      "id": 7,
      "label": "World Gold Council · Gold Market Commentary, December 2025",
      "url": "https://www.gold.org/goldhub/research/gold-market-commentary-december-2025",
      "zh": "2025 年金价大涨的主要显性驱动来自地缘政治/期权、美元与利率；央行购金不是当年涨幅的主解释。",
      "en": "Attributes the major explicit drivers of the 2025 rally to geopolitics/options, the dollar and rates; central-bank buying was not the primary explanation for the annual gain."
    },
    {
      "id": 8,
      "label": "World Gold Council · Central Bank Gold Reserves Survey 2026",
      "url": "https://www.gold.org/goldhub/research/central-bank-gold-reserves-survey-2026",
      "zh": "2022–2025 年央行购金年均约 1,000 吨，约为此前十年 500 吨均值的两倍。",
      "en": "Central-bank buying averaged roughly 1,000t in 2022–2025, about twice the prior decade's 500t average."
    },
    {
      "id": 9,
      "label": "LBMA · Precious Metal Prices",
      "url": "https://www.lbma.org.uk/prices-and-data/lbma-precious-metal-prices",
      "zh": "LBMA Gold Price PM 的定义与基准价格说明。",
      "en": "Definition and benchmark documentation for the LBMA Gold Price PM."
    },
    {
      "id": 10,
      "label": "European Central Bank · The international role of the euro, June 2025",
      "url": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/other-publications/ire/focus/html/ecb.irebox202506_01~f93400a4aa.en.html",
      "zh": "独立背景：地缘政治、储备多元化与黄金储备需求。",
      "en": "Independent context on geopolitics, reserve diversification and gold-reserve demand."
    },
    {
      "id": 11,
      "label": "IMF Working Paper · Gold as International Reserves",
      "url": "https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2023/01/27/gold-as-international-reserves-a-barbarous-relic-no-more-528089",
      "zh": "说明制裁风险与黄金储备占比可能由共同的地缘因素驱动，提示不要把购金与价格共振机械地解释成单向因果。",
      "en": "Shows how sanction risk and reserve gold shares can share geopolitical drivers, warning against a mechanical one-way causal interpretation."
    },
    {
      "id": 12,
      "label": "World Gold Council · Gold Demand Trends Full Year 2021",
      "url": "https://www.gold.org/goldhub/research/gold-demand-trends/gold-demand-trends-full-year-2021",
      "zh": "2021 年央行净购金 463.1 吨，用作 2022 年边际冲量的前一期基准。",
      "en": "Reports 463.1t of central-bank net buying in 2021, used as the prior-period base for the 2022 marginal impulse."
    }
  ],
  "caveats": [
    "WGC central-bank demand includes estimates for unreported activity and can be revised.",
    "The tonnes-to-price mapping is a local all-else-equal sensitivity, not a full causal decomposition.",
    "Notional dollar absorption uses period-average LBMA PM prices and is not an estimate of actual reserve-manager acquisition cost.",
    "Annual average price and full-year close-to-close return are different measures.",
    "Q1 2026 is not extrapolated into the annual support estimate."
  ]
}