{
  "generated_on": "2026-07-14",
  "method": {
    "long_stock": "Monthly log return of Shiller's nominal S&P total-return index (real total-return price × CPI)",
    "long_yield": "Forward monthly change in Shiller's GS10 series",
    "long_bond": "Log of Shiller's forward monthly gross total return on a synthetic 10-year government bond",
    "alignment": "All long-history values on date t represent the interval from t-1 to t; Shiller's bond return on source row t-1 is forward-aligned with stock and yield changes over the same interval.",
    "recent": "Daily log change in FRED SP500 and daily change in FRED DGS10",
    "warning": "Shiller's bond series is a synthetic constant-maturity government-bond return, not the realized return of one held-to-maturity CUSIP."
  },
  "sample": {
    "monthly_start": "1953-01-01",
    "monthly_end": "2026-06-01",
    "daily_start": "2016-07-14",
    "daily_end": "2026-07-10",
    "monthly_rows": 882,
    "daily_rows": 2493
  },
  "latest": {
    "monthly_date": "2026-06-01",
    "corr_yield_24m": 0.2878,
    "corr_yield_60m": -0.3268,
    "corr_yield_120m": 0.0079,
    "daily_date": "2026-07-10",
    "corr_yield_30d": -0.4784,
    "corr_yield_60d": -0.5887,
    "corr_yield_252d": -0.2288
  },
  "regimes": [
    {
      "id": "near-zero",
      "label": "弱相关／混合冲击",
      "short_label": "1953–69\n近零",
      "start": "1953-01-01",
      "end": "1969-12-01",
      "color": "#eef3f8",
      "months": 204,
      "corr_stock_yield": -0.0111,
      "corr_stock_bond": -0.0228,
      "mean_us10y": 4.075,
      "stock_monthly_vol_annualized": 0.1034
    },
    {
      "id": "temperamental",
      "label": "旧 Temperamental：通胀与政策冲击占优",
      "short_label": "1970–97\n通胀主导",
      "start": "1970-01-01",
      "end": "1997-12-01",
      "color": "#fff2df",
      "months": 336,
      "corr_stock_yield": -0.305,
      "corr_stock_bond": 0.3082,
      "mean_us10y": 8.453,
      "stock_monthly_vol_annualized": 0.122
    },
    {
      "id": "transition",
      "label": "制度切换：安全资产属性抬升",
      "short_label": "1998–2001\n切换",
      "start": "1998-01-01",
      "end": "2001-12-01",
      "color": "#f4efff",
      "months": 48,
      "corr_stock_yield": 0.2578,
      "corr_stock_bond": -0.2676,
      "mean_us10y": 5.487,
      "stock_monthly_vol_annualized": 0.1474
    },
    {
      "id": "great-moderation",
      "label": "Great Moderation：增长与避险冲击占优",
      "short_label": "2002–20\n增长/避险",
      "start": "2002-01-01",
      "end": "2020-12-01",
      "color": "#eaf4ff",
      "months": 228,
      "corr_stock_yield": 0.3189,
      "corr_stock_bond": -0.3298,
      "mean_us10y": 3.076,
      "stock_monthly_vol_annualized": 0.1341
    },
    {
      "id": "inflation-shock",
      "label": "通胀紧缩冲击：股债同跌",
      "short_label": "2021–22\n股债同跌",
      "start": "2021-01-01",
      "end": "2022-12-01",
      "color": "#ffebe8",
      "months": 24,
      "corr_stock_yield": -0.5162,
      "corr_stock_bond": 0.4972,
      "mean_us10y": 2.197,
      "stock_monthly_vol_annualized": 0.1272
    },
    {
      "id": "new-mixed",
      "label": "新混合状态：窗口敏感，制度待验证",
      "short_label": "2023–26\n近零/混合",
      "start": "2023-01-01",
      "end": "2026-06-01",
      "color": "#f5f1ff",
      "months": 42,
      "corr_stock_yield": -0.0831,
      "corr_stock_bond": 0.0789,
      "mean_us10y": 4.175,
      "stock_monthly_vol_annualized": 0.1031
    }
  ]
}